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West Michigan Rising
Rising from the Ashes to Build Our Left Coast in Michigan
Username: pbratt
PersonId: 48
Created: Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 15:06:24 PM EST
pbratt's RSS Feed
Web Page: peterabratt.blogspot.com
Email: peterbratt@gmail.com

Bio:
Former west Michigan resident, now finishing up graduate school at the University of Michigan.

Poorly armed and somewhat dangerous: Tea Party candidates in the 2010 Michigan primary

by: pbratt

Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 15:18:36 PM EDT

(Cross-posted at ML, BFM, and SSP-pb)

Since early 2009, the Tea Party movement has gained an enormous amount of media attention. While claiming to be a non-partisan movement, the Tea Party is remarkably consistent with some of the core constituencies at the heart of Republican Party since the late 1960s. In particular, the themes commonly evoked by Tea Party participants (economic libertarianism, fervent individualism, and deep distrust of any governmental intervention) largely mirror the platform of Republican Representative Ron Paul's 2008 candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination. Indeed, many organizers of Paul's campaign and leaders in the Young American for Freedom (YAF) were behind many of the early Tea Party events in 2009.

The rise of the Tea Party movement represents in part a return of many conservative libertarians to the GOP. The candidacy of Barry Goldwater in 1964 did much to bring libertarians into the Republican Party, were they largely remained for following four decades. During his second term, George W. Bush was responsible for driving some libertarians out, as many became extremely disenchanted with the Republican Party's focus on social issues and increased governmental expansion. While not abandoning the Republican Party entirely, a sizable percentage of libertarians voted from Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 for reasons similar to those voiced in blogger Markos Moulitsas's 2006 Cato Unbound article.

There's More... :: (6 Comments, 1149 words in story)

Primary night live blog: Kent and Muskegon County

by: pbratt

Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 12:37:00 PM EDT

Final 12am update. So, overnight a couple of the races have finalized. Huizinga holds off Reimersma in the 2nd, Hildenbrand wins in the 29th, Yonker comes back to win in the 72nd, Peter McGregor wins in the 73rd, Lisa Lyons wins in the 86th. In Muskegon, Maria Hovey-Wright wins in the 92nd State House Dem primary, while Ben Gillette will face Holly Hughes in the 91st District.

Thanks for following, and I'll write more later next week.

11:46pm With 97% of the vote in, LaGrand leading Dean 60% to 40% in the 29th State Senate Democratic primary. No word on where the precincts coming in, but I'm assuming GR is in.

11:45pm. Hovey and Nash are neck and neck in the 92nd State House race. Still too close to call in the 91st on both sides.

11:35pm. The two congressional races are still open on the GOP side. In the 2nd, Huizinga and Kuipers are essentially tied at 29%, with Riemersma back at 19%. In the 3rd, with only Grand Rapids out, Amash has 40% of the vote to Heacock's 24% and Hardiman's 23%. I said Amash was going to win months ago, and from the results so far, it looks like he will.

11:30pm. With just Gaines Township outstanding, looks like Ken Yonker is heading for another defeat at the hands of a libertarian GOP candidate. Eric Yonker looks likely to win Justin Amash's old seat. LaGrand pulling ahead in the 29th, but all of Grand Rapids has yet to report.

11:15pm. Looks like Kwame's mom is heading to defeat in the 13th Congressional primary. Wood-TV has called the 77th GOP primary for Hooker. Miles is winning the 3rd Democratic primary easily. McGregor pulling ahead in the 73rd.  

11:05pm. In the 3rd, with 37% of the vote in, Amash leads with 41%, while Hardiman inches up to 26%. No State Senate updates.

State House races, with Kentwood in, Eric Larson leads the 72nd District primary with 47% of the vote with 52% against Yonkers 42%. Peter McGregor has a narrow lead with 30% of the vote in the 73rd against Bruce Hawley (22% to 18%). In the 75th District GOP primary, Bing Goei wins with 57% of the vote against Jordan Bush's 43%. Goei will face Brandon Dillon in the general election in November. With 82% of the vote in the 77th GOP primary, Hooker narrowly leads Nate Viersman  29% to 27%. in the 86th, with 34% of the vote in, Lyons' lead is down to 49% against VerHuelen's 34%. Finally, in the 17th District County Commission Democratic primary, Candice Chivis has apparently knocked off incumbent James Vaughn.  

There's More... :: (2 Comments, 970 words in story)

State House Pre-Primary Filing Statements Analysis

by: pbratt

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 08:48:36 AM EDT

(cross-posted at ML and BFM-pb)

As with the State Senate pre-primary filing statements, I've performed an analysis of the top fundraisers for the Michigan State House primary races. Again, for those interested in the complete set of financial data, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

The top fifteen candidates in terms of money raised are listed in the link provided below:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Five of the top 15 fundraisers are incumbents, and five of the 15 are Democrats.  Two of the top fundraisers are Mike Shirkley and Mark Ouimet, Republicans running in open swing seats (Districts 65th and 52nd) that the Democrats will be fighting to hold. It is interesting to note that of the top Democratic fundraisers, only one is from metropolitan Detroit (Rashida Tlaib District 12). If the Democrats remain in the majority (which I predict they will), I'd expect to see Scripps, Schmidt, and Tlaib in the running for leadership positions. In good news for the Democrats, Brandon Dillon, who is running for the 75th State House seat vacated by Robert Dean, raised a significant amount of money that leaves him with a comfortable cash on hand advantage for the general election.

The top 15 spenders are listed next (the second tab of the spreadsheet):
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Once again, Republicans dominate this list, with self financers like Holly Hughes (District 91-Swing) and Jeff Oesterle (District 67-Safe DEM) repaying a large portion of their loans and thus leading the list. As with the State Senate list, many candidates with heavy spending are in competitive primaries.

Incumbents and candidates personally financing their campaigns dominate the list of candidates with the most cash on hand listed on the third tab of the spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

11 of the 15 candidates with the greatest cash on hand advantage are incumbents, and nine of these are Democratic incumbents, three of whom are in swing Districts (Dian Slavens District 21, Sarah Roberts District 24, and Lisa Brown District 39). This financial edge is a heartening sign for continued Democratic control of the House.

Finally, Republicans hold all of the top 15 spots on the fourth spreadsheet listing candidates with the greatest amount of personal debt.  
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

While money can't buy victory, it sure can help in competitive seats like Districts 21, 52, and 91. As in some State Senate primaries, the candidates are literally locked in a spending arms race in the final weeks until August 3.  

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

State Senate Pre-Primary Filing Statements Analysis

by: pbratt

Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 09:14:45 AM EDT

(Cross-posted at ML and BFM-pb)

State Senate Pre-Primary Filing Statements

While I have much more information on my subscription-only database, I figured that please might appreciate some basic information about the top fundraisers for Michigan State Senate primary races. Again, for those interested in the complete set of financial data, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

Nearly all candidates have reported their financial data (with the glaring exceptions of Rebekah Warren in the 18th and Coleman Young Jr. in the 1st). The top fifteen candidates in terms of money raised are listed in the link provided below:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

11 of the top fundraisers of Republicans, and two are in the 20th State Senate District primary. David LaGrand and David Hildenbrand are two other top fundraisers, and are potential opponents in a general election matchup in the 29th State Senate District. The top 15 spenders are listed next (the second tab of the spreadsheet):
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Incumbents and candidates personally financing their campaigns dominate the list of candidates with the most cash on hand listed on the third tab of the spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Republicans hold all but two of the top 15 spots on the fourth spreadsheet linked below.
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

While money can't buy victory, it sure can help. However, in a couple of primaries, namely the 11th and 20th Republican races, the candidates are literally locked in a spending arms race in the final weeks. Should be interesting to see what happens on August 3.

An analysis of the State House races will be provided later this week.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

State House and State Senate candidates Pre-Primary filing statements and some predictions

by: pbratt

Sat Jul 24, 2010 at 09:24:20 AM EDT

( - promoted by pbratt)

(Monday 7/26 update: Representative Dean's financial statement was released on Sunday July 25. Dean raised $30,271, spent $22,779, and has $3,031 cash on hand. The campaign has debts of $24,969, a loan which Dean gave to the campaign on January 29, 2010. Dean has a total of 22 donors, and in addition to his loan he contributed another $3,500 to the campaign. So, essentially, Dean's donors have given him a grand total of $2,500.-pb)

While I have much more information on my subscription only database, I figured that folks at West Michigan Rising might appreciate some basic information about a couple of races of interest. Again, for those interested, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

20th State Senate District

First, in the 20th State Senate District there is a lot of money being thrown around. Lorence Wenke raised $317,260, spent $211,476 and has $125,125 cash on hand. Much of this money came from Wenke's own pocket, as he has loaned himself $365,000. Wenke is followed by Tonya Schuitmaker who raised $126,464, spent $146,767, and has $106,085 in cash on hand. Like Wenke, Schuitmaker has spent a large amount of her own money, providing herself with $100,000 in a personal loan. Schuitmaker and Wenke are both from different sides of the Republican tent-Wenke is an unabashed socially liberal Republican, while Schuitmaker has lined up support from conservative loyalists in the 20th District despite her inferior geographic position (being from Van Buren County rather than Kalamazoo). The third candidate in the GOP primary, moderate Larry DeShazor, has raised $34,141, spent $30,809, and has $3,331 cash on hand, with personal loans of $19,804. While many consider DeShazor to be the strongest general election candidate the GOP could run, his poor fund raising is likely to hinder him in this free spending primary. For what it is worth, I'm predicting Schuitmaker to win on August 3.

On the Democratic side, Mark Totten has again substantially out raised Representative Robert Jones. Totten raised $65,942, spent $112,928, and has $73,100 in cash on hand, with a personal loan of $32,704. In contrast, Jones raised $49,770, spent $40,639, has $9,131 in cash on hand, and has a personal loan of $10,377. While Ballenger is calling this race for Jones, I think Totten is going to pull this one out.  

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 439 words in story)

MI-2 and MI-3 Second Quarter Fundraising numbers (Updated with Hardiman's numbers)

by: pbratt

Fri Jul 16, 2010 at 09:14:38 AM EDT

Candidates running for federal office were required to submit their second quarter filing statements by July 15th at 5pm. Most of the financial data is online now, so let's look at two races close to WMR's heart: the 2nd and 3rd Michigan Congressional Districts.

In the 2nd District Republican primary, the long-standing cash on hand edge that Jay Riemersma had has largely disappeared. Of the seven candidates in the 2nd District primary, listed below is the 2nd quarter financial data:

CandidateContributions 2ndQ (Total)Spending 2ndQ (Total)Cash On Hand (debts)
COOPER(R)$16,920 ($92,596)$75,949 ($164,952)$106,038 ($178,348)
HUIZENGA(R)$108,124 ($292,481)$67,750 ($217,675)$100,756 ($25,000)
KUIPERS(R)$75,415 ($188,005)$17,445 ($38,370)$149,634
MCCLURE(R)$4,682 ($4,682)$6,757 ($6,757)$1,419
REICHARDT(R)$66,376 ($102,349)$85,073 ($97,939)$3,981
RIEMERSMA(R)$122,545 ($448,153)$253,011 ($521,012)$127,540 ($200,000)
WINCEL(R)$300 ($7,185)$7,664 ($11,993)$2,191 ($7,000)
JOHNSON(D)$29,242 ($53,301)$20,258 ($37,797)$15,963 ($1,000)

Riemersma has just been burning cash this quarter, no doubt in part to working with Strategic National. With four candidates (Kuipers, Riemersma, Huizenga, and Cooper) having over $100,000 cash on hand for the final five weeks before the primary, the outcome is still in doubt. The winner of the primary will face Democratic candidate Fred Johnson, who reported respectable numbers. Go over the fold to see the 3rd District numbers.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 136 words in story)

3rd District Primary Analysis

by: pbratt

Mon Jul 12, 2010 at 09:39:51 AM EDT

Introduction

With just over three weeks before the August 3 primary, Republican and Democratic campaigns are starting to take a look at who might be coming to the polls. Voter turnout in August tends to be rather apathetic, given that many folks are out of town or find the choices on the ballot to be unappealing. However, the 2010 Republican and Democratic primaries have a host of interesting candidates to choose from, although none as interesting as in the 3rd Congressional District primary. The 3rd Congressional District covers Barry, Ionia, and Kent County (with the exception of Alpine, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships in the northwest corner of Kent County). Add to the 3rd District race the Democratic and Republican primary races for governor and the 29th State Senate seat (Kentwood/Grand Rapids), and the competitive Republican state house races in the 72nd, 73rd, 75th, 77th, and 86th districts, there are reasons to expect higher turnout in 2010.


http://i303.photobucket.com/al...

There's More... :: (6 Comments, 1012 words in story)

GOP Lovefest: Updated

by: pbratt

Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 09:01:12 AM EDT

Looks like the fun times in the 72nd and 75th State House GOP primaries are continuing. The GR Press endorsed Ken Yonker and Bing Goei in their respective primaries over Eric Larson and Jordan Bush. Bush adviser Tyler Gaastra wasn't happy about this, and put his feelings in the comments:

The litmus test for the Press endorsement is support for tax subsidies or outlays? The Granholm-directed economy has failed Michigan. We can't rely on central planners in Lansing to dictate which businesses are likely to succeed in the market. Instead, we need low taxes for all businesses. The government should not play favorites. This is the philosophical argument against tax subsidies. The practical argument is that tax subsidies are not transparent and are abused (Hanger 42). They create an incentive for unlawful behavior.

If you like the Granholm's economic planning, vote for Ken Yonker or Bing Goei. If you like equal opportunity and free markets, vote for Eric Larson or Jordan Bush.

Updated: Digging a deeper hole:

You can't be pro-free market and pro-tax subsidies. Eric Larson is stronger on this issue.
So far, the Press has only endorsed candidates who favor the use of tax subsidies. If Mr. Yonker was passionately against tax subsidies, then the Press would not have endorsed.

Mr. Yonker does have a much better, more conservative, platform than Bing Goei, so I did him a disservice by linking the two.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 11 words in story)

State of the Senate: Part IV

by: pbratt

Thu Jul 01, 2010 at 17:45:16 PM EDT

Introduction

A few months ago I examined the underlying political conditions of the 110 Michigan State House districts, which can be found here, and in addition to previous analysis of the State Senate and State House. This analysis used a variation of the reputable House Vulnerability Index developed by Crisitunity at the Swing State Project that I called the District Vulnerability Index (DVI). This analysis is the fourth part of the series, and looks at the individual State Senate races. I last looked at individual candidate filings at the end of April, and over the past two months, the field of candidates who have filed to run in the August 2010 primary have solidified for both parties. As mentioned in previous posts, I maintain a listing of State House and State Senate candidates that includes the financial filing statements and in-depth analysis that can be obtained via a subscription by emailing peterbratt@gmail.com.  

There's More... :: (1 Comments, 757 words in story)

GOP Fratricide (3rd District Version): Part II

by: pbratt

Mon Jun 28, 2010 at 11:01:20 AM EDT

The love continues in the GOP 3rd District primary. Fresh up on youtube is an anti Justin Amash  video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Interesting text comments posted with the video:

Justin Amash you have gone beyond the point of decency. I have followed Steve Heacock's campaign for some time and what you and your goons did last week to this fine man's reputation is reprehensible. It took a few of us awhile to figure out how to make this video, but we thought you deserve a taste of your own medicine. Unlike your attempt to mock Mr. Heacock, this is not a product of a campaign. Actually, I think Mr. Heacock would probably disapprove. However, we do think that you are too immature for public office. Not to mention that, we agree that both you and your views are creepy. Besides, you remind us of the guy in school that never washes his hands after going to the bathroom. Enjoy ....

Have to say, while the video claims that Amash's house is worth $400,000, zillow estimates the property's worth at $499,000, and the state of Michigan's State Equalized Value of the property is $262,000, meaning that the house is worth about $524,000. Either way, waiting for Hardiman to get an attack video shortly.

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

GOP Fratricide (3rd District Version)

by: pbratt

Thu Jun 17, 2010 at 16:03:58 PM EDT

Looks like the GOP Congressional Primary battle between Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, and Steve Heacock got a bit nastier.

On a youtube video entitled "Heacock For Congress: They're stupid enough", a photo of Steve Heacock says the following text:

Hi, I'm Steve Heacock and even though it's a bad move for me and my family, I'm running for Congress in the Michigan 3rd. My experience in the health insurance industry, long history serving on bank boards, and as Mr. Van Andel's personal man servant is exactly the kind of experience we need in Washington. Now don't be fooled by my opponent's charges, just because I look like a used car salesman doesn't mean a thing. It's not that I like to smile, I just don't have any choice. Those botox injections froze my face this way. But that's ok, you can trust me just like all my bank buddies and my boys that have my back down at the Varnum Group. My record of leadership says is all. I'm personally responsible for everything that's been good for Grand Rapids since I graduated from high school. And I don't need to tell you that everything bad around here is the fault of my opponents. Mr. Hardiman, he's just been ineffective in the state senate ... and besides he's got that lazy look in his eyes. Mr. Overbeek, he's a veteran, what do they know about service. Mrs. Johnson, what, she's jogging around the district for votes, give me a break. Now Mr. Amash, he's my only real competition. But I'm not worried, who pays attention to Facebook. If we're real quite maybe the tea party won't notice the TV adds I'm about to unleash that will remind everyone how I single-handedly saved Grand Rapids over the last twenty years. I'm Steve Heacock and I'm positive you're all stupid enough to elect me as your next Congressman for the Michigan 3rd.

Nothing like a friendly GOP primary. Of course, who can forget Justin Amash's employment struggles at Varnum?

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 493 words in story)

GOP County Commission Candidate: Robbing from "The Hut"

by: pbratt

Thu Jun 17, 2010 at 15:41:44 PM EDT

Who knew that the corner of Breton and Burton could be so dangerous? Or maybe not. From the Grand Rapids Press:

GRAND RAPIDS -- Financial troubles caused by gambling losses allegedly led a Caledonia school board member and candidate for the Kent County Commission to claim he was carjacked and that a thief stole money he was to deposit from his job at Pizza Hut, police said.

Brad Engelberg, 31, called police Tuesday and told officers he was held up while stopped at a red light at the corner of Burton Street and Breton Avenue SE.

See the full story here:
http://www.mlive.com/news/gran...

Engelberg is a GOP candidate running against GOP Commissioner Bill Hirsch in the 10th District (Caledonia and Gaines Township). Probably won't be much of a primary now.  

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

May 4 Election Results: Liveblog

by: pbratt

Tue May 04, 2010 at 20:33:25 PM EDT

10:29pm: Last big race in GR area is over, with Kentwood public safety levy passing with 3,214 (61%) to 2,010 (38%). I think that is it here at WMR for the live blogging. Have a good night.
10:26pm: While GR Proposal 1 was close, I'm doubtful anyone will see a recount. In Kent County a recount costs $10 per precinct, with a total cost being $710. I'm all for counting every vote, but there is not an automatic recount trigger for local races in MI.
10:09pm: Game over, and it looks like voters preferred a functioning society over the Articles of Confederation. With 100% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 9,763 (51%), No votes 9,559 (49%). Yes margin of 204 votes. A close call, but guess who called this on March 31?
10:06pm: With 98% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 9,560 (51%), No votes 9,310 (49%). Yes margin at 250 votes with 1 precinct left.
10:02pm: With 97% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, the margin is tightening up again.  Yes votes 9,335 (50%), No votes 9,158 (50%). Yes margin increase to 286 votes. With 2 precincts left. For the GRPS School Board, Slade leads with 37%, O'Conner with 25%, McGlynn with 19%, Campbell with 10%, and McClary with 9%. 2 precincts outstanding, and it looks like Slade is for sure on the board, with the battle between O'Connor and McGlynn.
10:00pm: With 61% of the vote in for Kentwood Proposal 1, Yes votes 1,935 (63%), No votes 1,138 (37%). This one is looking likely to pass.
9:46pm: With 95% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 9,061 (51%), No votes 8,775 (49%). Yes margin increase to 286 votes. With 3 precincts left.
9:36pm: With 91% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 8,424 (50%), No votes 8,406 (50%). Yes margin shrinks to 18 votes. Too close to call with 6 precincts left.
9:39pm: Wyoming Public Safety Levy passes, Yes votes 4,552 (55%), No votes 3,719 (45%).
9:36pm: With 91% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 8,424 (50%), No votes 8,406 (50%). Yes margin shrinks to 18 votes. Too close to call with 6 precincts left.
9:29pm: With 88% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 8,034 (50%), No votes 7,999 (50%). Again, Yes margin gets slightly larger with 35 votes. Too close to call with 9 precincts left-where are the outstanding precincts stupid election magic?
9:23 pm: With 84% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 7,692 (50%), No votes 7,663 (50%). Yes margin gets slightly larger with 29 votes
9:17 pm: With 83% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 7,440 (50%), No votes 7,434 (50%). 6 votes apart-wow. My best guess is that 59 of 71 precincts have reported, but I don't know from where.
9:11 pm: With 76% of the vote in for GR Proposal 1, Yes votes 6,869 (51%), No 6,732 (49%). Too close to call!
9:02pm: Nothing yet for Kentwood or Wyoming.
8:59pm: WOOD TV is reporting close race thus far for GR Proposal 1. Yes votes 3,333 (48%), No votes 3,672 (52%). Don't know where these are from yet. 43% of the total vote in. Very close thus far.
8:57pm: The polls closed almost an hour ago, and still no results. Should see some stuff come in any minute now.
8:32pm: The polls closed half an hour ago, and we should be expecting some returns soon. I'll be keeping a close eye on the tax ballot questions in Kentwood, Grand Rapids, and Wyoming.
Discuss :: (3 Comments)

Don't Forget: Vote Today

by: pbratt

Tue May 04, 2010 at 10:01:28 AM EDT

Folks:

Even though May elections tend to be forgotten by voters, please remember to go out and vote today. If you need any reminder on what is on the ballot today, please check the GR Press story.

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

State of the House: Part III

by: pbratt

Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 10:08:27 AM EDT

(cross-posted on WMR, ML, BFM-pb)

Introduction

A few weeks ago I examined the underlying political conditions of the 110 Michigan State House districts, which can be found here, and later performed the same analysis on the State Senate. This analysis used a variation of the reputable House Vulnerability Index developed by Crisitunity at the Swing State Project that I called the District Vulnerability Index (DVI). This analysis is the third part of the series, and looks at the individual State House races. The forthcoming last section will look at the State Senate races. I last looked at individual candidate filings in mid-January, and in the past three months, over 100 candidates have filed to run in the August 2010 primary for both parties. As mentioned previously, I maintain a listing of State House and State Senate candidates that includes the financial filing statements that can be obtained via a subscription by emailing peterbratt@gmail.com.

There's More... :: (5 Comments, 1021 words in story)

State of the Senate: Part II

by: pbratt

Wed Apr 21, 2010 at 15:15:45 PM EDT

(cross-posted at WMR, BFM, and ML-pb)

Introduction

A few weeks ago I examined the underlying political conditions of the 110 Michigan State House districts, which can be found here. This second part performs the same analysis on the State Senate. As stated previously, the forthcoming third and fourth parts will examine the candidates who have filed to run for seats in the State House and State Senate. As mentioned previously, I maintain a listing of State House and State Senate candidates that includes the financial filing statements that can be obtained via a subscription by emailing peterbratt@gmail.com.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 836 words in story)

May 2010: GR Income Tax Vote

by: pbratt

Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 09:38:54 AM EDT

Introduction

Most May elections in Michigan tend to be subdued affairs. With only school board races (as well as community college candidates) on the ballot, most voters tend to stay away from the polls on the first Tuesday of May. However, the election on May 4, 2010 might be a more interesting affair, largely because the City of Grand Rapids has a proposed income tax increase going before the voters. The city proposes to increase the city's income tax for a five-year period between 2010 and 2015 for both residents and non-residents who work in Grand Rapids. The rate on residents would increase from 1.3% to 1.5%, while non-residents would see their rate increase from .65% to .75%.

Regardless of the merits of the tax increase (personal opinion moment: while local income taxes have an adverse impact on job sprawl and residential population, I can't see many other ways for the City to balance its budget after seeing its share of revenue from the state dwindle over the past seven years-pb), what is the likely voting patterns that supporters and opponents of the measure can expect on May 4? In the past five May elections voters have cast ballots on three millage measures: two in 2007; one for GR Community College and another for the Rapid Bus System, and one in 2009 again for the Rapid. Voting returns from the past five May elections (2005-2009) and two August ballot measures (August 2004 Zoo millage and August 2008 Jail millage) that serve as a comparison indicator, can provide some clues.  

There's More... :: (1 Comments, 1675 words in story)

6th Congressional District: Hoogendyk to challenge Upton?

by: pbratt

Mon Mar 08, 2010 at 09:12:22 AM EST

Looks like the GOP in the 6th Congressional District want some of the fun that is happening in the 3rd Congressional District in Grand Rapids:

From the Kalamazoo Gazette:

KALAMAZOO - Jack Hoogendyk, a conservative Republican activist and former state representative from Texas Township, is testing the political waters for a potential August primary challenge to U.S. Rep. Fred Upton, R-St. Joseph.

Read the whole article here:
http://www.mlive.com/news/kala...

It would be lovely to see another bitter GOP primary, but it would be even more enjoyable to see a strong Democratic candidate emerge for 2010. The 6th is even less of a GOP seat than the 3rd, so there is an opportunity for a strong candidate.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

MI-3 (GOP Primary): Jansen Out

by: pbratt

Mon Feb 22, 2010 at 09:24:34 AM EST

As many here suspected, but Jansen makes it official. From the GR Press:

GAINES TOWNSHIP -- State Sen. Mark Jansen, R-Gaines Township, said he will not run for the Congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers, R-Grand Rapids. He planned to announce his decision today.

Jansen said he is committed to remaining in the Senate and getting the state moving in the right direction. He is considered a top candidate to become Senate Majority Leader in 2011.

See the whole story here:
http://www.mlive.com/news/gran...

Of the undecided GOP contestants, only Hardiman and Heacock remain. Stay tuned.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

God is good: Amash Running for the 3rd Congressional District

by: pbratt

Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 16:43:34 PM EST

Justin Amash (Republican-72nd District) is running for Congress. From the Grand Rapids Press:

Justin Amash, 29, a first-term Republican state representative from Kentwood, announced on his Facebook page minutes ago that he will seek the 3rd District Congressional seat held by Vern Ehlers.

He set up a Web site that touts his record of supporting limited government.

Ehlers, 76, said he would announce Wednesday whether he will seek a ninth term. The district includes Barry, Ionia and all but a sliver of Kent counties.

Full story here:
http://www.mlive.com/news/gran...

The article mentions that Amash has the backing of three Republican representatives (although only one from metropolitan Grand Rapids).

See Amash's website here:

http://www.amashforcongress.com/

We'll see if Vern is up for a challenge.

Discuss :: (5 Comments)
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ScottyUrb's Great Lakes
Windmillin
West Michigan Politics (Barry County)
Manistee Talks Politics
Public Pulse
Democratic Edge
Chance of Gay
The Audacity of Hoek(MI02)
Eye on Ehlers(MI03)

Statewide Blogs
The Upper Hand(Progress Michigan)
Call of the Senate Democrats
LCV-Michigan Blog
Black Bear Speaks
Celeste's Our Michigan
Kathy's Stone Soup Musings
Far Left Field
Lucy's Liberal, Loud & Proud
The Conservative Media

Michigan Local Blogs
East Michigan Blue
Mark Maynard(Yypsi)
Democracy for Metro Detroit
Oakland Democratic Politics
David's Arblogger

National Blogs We Read
DailyKos
OpenLeft
TPM Cafe
MyDD
Marcy's Emptywheel
Crooks And Liars
Ezra Klein
Tasini's Working Life
Digby
David Sirota
AFL-CIO Blog
Change to Win Blog

Our Sister Regional Blogs
The Albany Project
Cobalt 6 folded, don't know of any others


West Michigan Progressives
County Democratic Parties
Allegan
Berrien
Benzie
Grand Traverse
Kalamazoo
Kent
Leelanau
Manistee
Montcalm
Muskegon
Newaygo
Ottawa
Van Buren

County Parties without websites: Barry, Cass, Ionia, Lake, Leelanau, Mason, Oceana, St. Joseph, and Wexford.

Congressional District Democratic Parties
2nd District
3rd District
6th District

Democratic Clubs
South Berrien County Democratic Club
Harbor Country for Progress (Berrien)

Progressive Organizations
Progressive Directory of Western Michigan
Drinking Liberally Grand Rapids (on fb)
Kent County Democracy for America
Friends of Labor (Kent)
Progressive Women's Alliance (Kent)
Progressive Democrats of West Michigan (Barry)
Clean Water Action - West Michigan
West Michigan Environmental Action Council
League of Conservation Voters (West MI)
West Michigan Justice & Peace Coalition
ACORN Grand Rapids

Unions
UWA Region 1-D
Teamsters 406
UFCW 951
Plumbers-UA 174
RWDSU
IBEW 275
CWA 4034
Michigan Education Assoc
Grand Rapids Education Assoc
Kalamazoo Education Assoc
GR Police
GR Firefighters
Kent County Law Enforcement Assoc
IATSE 26
Michigan AFL-CIO
Anti "Right To Work" Coalition
more coming

College Democrats Western Michigan University
Grand Valley State University
Kalamazoo College
Aquinas College
Hope College
Ferris State University


West Michigan Democrats
West Michigan Democratic Elected Officials

Michigan State House

60: Robert Jones
70: Mike Huckleberry
75: Robert Dean
76: Roy Schmidt
91: Mary Valentine
92: Doug Bennett
101: Dan Scripps

Candidates

US Congress
Fred Johnson (2nd District)
Pat Miles (3rd District)
Jerry Campbell (4th District)
Don Cooney (6nd District)

Statewide Candidates
Virg Bernero
Jocelyn Benson
David Leyton

Michgan Senate Candidates

District 20 Kalamazoo
Robert Jones
District 21 Berrien, Cass, Van Buren
Scott Elliott
District 24 Allegan, Barry, Eaton
Michelle DiSano
District 28 Kent (part)
Robin Golden
District 29 Kent (part)
David LaGrand
District 30 Ottawa
John Chester
District 34 Muskegon, Oceana, Mason, Newaygo
Mary Valentine
District 35 Northwest LP
Roger Dunigan
District 37 Grand Traverse & north
Bob Carr

Michigan State House Candidates

District 59 (St. Joseph & Cass Counties)
Carol Higgins
District 60 (Kalamazoo)
Sean McCann
District 61 (Kalamazoo)
Thomas Batten
District 63 (Kalamazoo)
David Morgan
District 70 (Ionia & Montcalm Counties)
Mike Huckleberry
District 72 (Kentwood & Cascade)
Brian Bosak
District 73 (Kent County)
Jerrod Roberts
District 74 (Ottawa County)
Leon Chase
District 75 (Grand Rapids)
Brandon Dillon
District 76 (Grand Rapids)
Roy Schmidt
District 77 (Wyoming)
Scott Baron
District 78 (Berrien County)
Cindy Ellis
District 79 (Berrien County)
Julee Laurent
District 80 (VanBuren)
Tom Erdmann
District 86 (Kent County)
Frank Hammond
District 87 (Barry & Ionia Counties)
Greg Grieves
District 89 (Ottawa County)
Donald Bergman
District 91 (Muskegon)
Ben Gillette
District 92 (Muskegon)
Marcia Hovey-Wright
District 100 (Newaygo, Lake, and Oceana Counties)
Donald Bergman
District 101 (Northwest)
Dan Scripps

County Commissions Candidates

Allegan County Commission
9 Fritz Spreitzer (I)
10 April Carvalho

Barry County Commission
1 Bob Dickinson

Benzie County Commission
3 Kristin Hollenbeck (I)
4 Anne Damm (I)
6 Donald Tanner (I)

Berrien County Commission
3 Marletta Seats (I)
4 Mamie Yarbrough (I)
10 Andrew Vavra (I)
11 Jess Minks
12 Michael Ringler
13 John Klimek (I)

Cass County Commission
1 Ed Goodman (I)
7 David Taylor (I)
9 Judy Helpingstine
11 Clark Cobb (I)
12 Minnie Warren (I)
13 Johnie Rodebush (I)
14 Debbie Johnson (I)

Grand Traverse County Commission
1 Bernol Soutar

Ionia County Commission
1 Lynn Mason (I)
4 Mark Vroman (I)

Kalamazoo County Commission
1 Jack Urban (I)
2 Carolyn Alford (I)
3 Robert Barnard (I)
4 John Taylor (I)
5 Brian Johnson (I)
6 Mike Seals
7 David Buskirk (I)
9 Chuck Vliek
10 Michael Quinn (I)
11 Barb Hammon
12 Scott McCormick
13 Harvey Hanna
15 Leroy Crabtree
16 Thomas Post
17 Jerry Rudolph

Kent County Commission
1 Mary Lauka
2 Patricia Kramer
3 James Black
4 Fred Clowney
6 James Rinck
7 Al Nielsen
8 Keith Courtade (I)
9 Duane Sprague
10 Albert Abbasse
11 Russell Duffin
12 Pete Hickey (I)
13 Kyle Hinton
14 Carol Hennessy (I)
15 Dick Bulkowski (I)
16 Jim Talen (I)
17 Candace Chivis
18 Richard Tormala
19 Bob Synk (I)

Leelanau County Commission
3 Jason Harrall
6 David Marshall (I)
7 Karl Dungjen

Manistee County Commission
2 Marlene E. Wood-Zylstra
3 Glenn Lottie (I)
4 Ervin A. Kowalski (I)
5 Karl R. Waitner
6 Jim Krolczyk (I)
7 Carl Rutske (I)

Montcalm County Commission
1 Ronald C. Blanding (I)

Mason County Commission
5 Jerome Rybicki (I)
8 David Fonnesbeck

Musekgon County Commission
1 Kenneth Mahoney (I)
2 Charles Buzzell (I)
4 James Derezinski (I)
5 Carl Wentzlof
6 Lew Collins (I)
7 Scott Plummer
8 Anthony Longmire
9 Rillastine Wilkins
10 Benjamin Cross
11 John Jurkas

Newaygo County Commission
1 Barbara Geno (I)
5 Rick Werkema

Oceana County Commission
1 David Spitler
5 Evelyn Kolbe (I)

Ottawa County Commission
3 Jeff Williams

Van Buren County Commission
1 Claudia Maddox
3 Al Hughes


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